Ian Morrison

Biography

Ian Morrison doesn’t just predict the future, he shows audiences how to tap its most unexpected resources. Using all the insight of an expert futurist, Morrison teaches audiences how to plan for the longterm by identifying the driving forces that are shaping our new century. With a Scottish sense of humor that puts a droll spin on the most serious of subjects, he provides the skills needed to recognize unforeseen opportunities and to transform an organization, an industry or a life. His seven books include the best-selling The Second Curve: Managing the Velocity of Change and Health Care in the New Millennium: Vision, Values and Leadership.

A senior fellow and former president of the Institute for the Future, Dr. Morrison heads his own consulting firm and is chairman of The Health Futures Forum. With wit and style, he offers audiences the practical strategies that make fortunes out of the future.

Publications

This book provides a concise and easily digested synthesis of current health policy, and then systematically explains to professionals how to face the leadership challenges of today's health care industry. Building on the author's nearly ten years with the acclaimed thinktank, The Institute for the Future, health care leaders will learn why structural change within the evolving health care system will create unprecedented growth and opportunity for virtually everyone who works in the field.

Titles

The Second Curve: Managing the Velocity of Change
The thesis of Ian Morrison's The Second Curve: Managing the Velocity of Change) is that most businesses in most industries are going along quite nicely on their first curve (their core business) where they make all their profit and revenue. Then along comes a second curve - a new business or completely new way of doing business - that threatens to replace the first curve. The second curve is driven by the confluence of three powerful driving forces: new technologies, such as the Internet; new consumers, who are smarter, more affluent, more skeptical and more demanding than the previous generation; and new markets, such as China, with its 1.2 billion consumers. The challenge is to gauge how fast the second curve will take over and develop strategy accordingly. All of the current profit is on the First Curve, all of the future growth is on the Second Curve. But there is a natural human tendency to overestimate the impact of phenomena in the short run, and underestimate it in the long run. The key is to understand and manage the velocity of change.

The Future of the Healthcare Marketplace
Healthcare is in a state of flux. Managed care faltered as it came under increasing scrutiny by the media, the consumer, and the regulators. Healthcare costs are rising and the burden is increasingly being shifted to consumers. Large scale vertical integration in healthcare has not taken place, rather we have seen massive horizontal consolidation of pharmaceutical companies, health plans, hospital systems, and to a lesser extent physician groups. Increased consumerism amplified by the internet creates new opportunities and new challenges. The industry is looking for a new direction and a new vision, but we fall prey to fads, as organizations are stretched thin by the roller coaster of change in management philosophy, reimbursement, and medical technology. This presentation will focus on the political, economic, and strategic context of change in healthcare and examine how the various actors are preparing for the future. It will identify the leadership challenges and opportunities that lie ahead and will provide strategic insights on how organizations and individuals can flourish in the new millennium in healthcare.